BIGinsight™ March Executive Briefing

The Monthly Consumer Survey from BIGinsight™ monitors over 8,000 consumers each month providing unique insights & identifying opportunities in a fragmented and transitory marketplace.

Talking Points:
- Confidence continues to climb in March, though still well below pre-recession levels
- February’s spending empowerment fizzles – Practicality is UP
- “Save-not-Squander” is the financial mantra this month
- Newest apparel trends and styles important to record number of shoppers
- Kohl’s wins over Walmart in Women’s Clothing
- Consumer Migration: Linens/Bedding/Draperies
- BIG Ticket: Why is Vacation Travel looking upward over the next six months?
- What’s Hot? It’s a good thing those Apple rumors turned out to be true…

Confidence continues to climb in March…more than a third (34.8%) say they are very confident/confident in chances for a strong economy, up more than a point from February (33.1%) and rising nearly 20% from a year ago (29.1%). This month’s reading is also the highest recorded since the very beginning of the recession (Dec-07 = 37.0%).

Consumer Confidence

While nearly half of consumers say that trust in the stability of the national economy has the most influence on their economic sentiment, consumer confidence can mean many things to many people, particularly by generation…read the blog: Confidence Defined.

Is concern for political and national security issues ramping up in anticipation of the Presidential election? This month, one in five (20.7%) is worrying more about matters on Capitol Hill, up two points from February (18.3%) and on par with Mar-11 (21.0%). At any rate, consumers seem to be in a slightly better state of mind than they were headed into ’08 Presidential election (Mar-08 = 22.3%).

The spending empowerment we saw in February seems to have fizzled faster than spring daffodils on a 75 degree day [which is what we’re experiencing right now in central Ohio #notcomplaining]…the majority of consumers (51.3%) indicates that they’ve become more practical in their purchasing, rising almost 10 points from last month (41.9%) and trending slightly ahead of Mar-11 (48.2%).

Expect more consumers to stick to their shopping lists, as those focused on needs over wants spiked over the past 30 days…this month, 56.8% are honing in on just the necessities when at the store, up six points from February (49.6%) and rising just a point from last year (55.8%).

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With the official U.S. unemployment rate holding steady at 8.3% from January to February, consumers grow a little more weary regarding their stance on layoff levels…this month, more than one in five (23.9%) predicts there will be “more” layoffs over the next six months, rising a point from February (22.9%). The majority (53.2%) contends that pink slip levels will remain the same, down slightly from last month (54.3%), while 22.9% are hopeful for a decline in the number of layoffs, flat from February (22.8%).

Following NRF/BIG data indicating that a record number plans to plow tax refunds into piggy banks, consumers seem resolute in March to make good on this save-not-squander intention… while paying down debt (34.6%) remains the top financial plan over the next three months, nearly as many (32.4%) will decrease overall spending, up four points from February (28.4%). Three in ten (29.9%) plan to increase savings – rising from 26.8% a year ago – and one in five (21.3%) intend to pay with cash more often.

Gas prices inching ever-so-closely to $4/gal aren’t passing by drivers unnoticed…among the more than 75% of consumers affected by pumped up pricing, half (50.9%) say they will simply drive less in order to cope with the increasing cost, rising from 40.3% in February. Drivers will also attempt to defray fueling expenses by reducing dining out (40.6%), decreasing vacation travel (37.1%), spending less on clothing (33.5%), and delaying major purchases (25.9%).

For more evidence on why consumers are curbing spending, read on: three out of four consumers (76.9%) believe that pump prices will continue to rise through the end of the month. Just one in five (19.7%) think’s they’ll remain steady, while a scant few (3.4%) are ~~not in touch with reality~~ positive about a price decline. Consumers’ pump price prediction for the end of March averages $4.08/gal, which is sobering considering that their close-of-February forecast ($3.69/gal) didn’t veer too far from reality ($3.78/gal*). *Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.